When Will the Fed Cut Interest Rates?

The timing of the next Fed rate cut is one of the most consequential questions in financial markets. Prediction markets aggregate real-money bets from thousands of traders to produce meeting-by-meeting probability estimates that often lead traditional indicators.

Traders price each upcoming FOMC meeting based on inflation data, employment reports, GDP growth, and Fed governor speeches. The resulting odds provide a granular timeline showing exactly when the market expects the cutting cycle to begin and how fast rates will come down.

These prediction market odds have historically been among the best forecasters of Fed actions, consistently outperforming survey-based expectations. The live markets below show the current consensus for each upcoming Fed meeting.