How to Predict Interest Rates

Interest rate prediction markets are among the most accurate forecasting tools available for monetary policy, consistently outperforming survey-based forecasts and matching or beating futures-implied probabilities. Traders bet on specific FOMC meeting outcomes, giving you meeting-by-meeting rate change probabilities.

Key inputs for rate prediction include inflation data (CPI, PCE), employment reports (payrolls, unemployment rate), GDP growth, Fed governor speeches, and financial conditions indices. Prediction markets aggregate all of these signals plus geopolitical and fiscal policy considerations.

For the most reliable interest rate forecast, compare prediction market odds with CME FedWatch probabilities and your own assessment of the economic data. When these sources disagree, it often signals an opportunity for more accurate forecasting. The current rate-related prediction markets are shown below.