When Will the Next Pandemic Happen?

Next pandemic timing markets track the probability of a WHO-declared pandemic or equivalent global health emergency. These markets became highly active during COVID-19 and continue to be traded as new pathogen threats emerge, from bird flu variants to novel coronaviruses.

Traders in these markets monitor epidemiological data, emerging pathogen surveillance, zoonotic spillover events, and global health preparedness metrics. The odds reflect both the biological probability of a new pandemic-capable pathogen and the likelihood that containment efforts would fail.

Prediction markets provide a useful complement to official risk assessments because they update continuously and aggregate many independent assessments. While no one can predict the exact timing of the next pandemic, market odds help quantify the timeline risk. See current data below.