What Are the Odds of Another Pandemic?
Pandemic risk prediction markets track the probability of significant disease outbreaks, WHO emergency declarations, and public health milestones. These markets gained massive credibility during COVID-19, when prediction market odds consistently outperformed institutional forecasts on key milestones.
Traders in these markets monitor surveillance data, emerging pathogen reports, vaccine development timelines, and public health infrastructure. The odds factor in both the biological probability of a novel pathogen and the societal preparedness to contain it.
With bird flu, novel coronaviruses, and other emerging threats constantly evolving, prediction markets provide a real-time risk barometer that synthesizes thousands of expert and non-expert assessments into actionable probability estimates. Browse the current markets below.
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