Outcalled

What Are the Odds of Another Pandemic?

Pandemic risk prediction markets track the probability of significant disease outbreaks, WHO emergency declarations, and public health milestones. These markets gained massive credibility during COVID-19, when prediction market odds consistently outperformed institutional forecasts on key milestones.

Traders in these markets monitor surveillance data, emerging pathogen reports, vaccine development timelines, and public health infrastructure. The odds factor in both the biological probability of a novel pathogen and the societal preparedness to contain it.

With bird flu, novel coronaviruses, and other emerging threats constantly evolving, prediction markets provide a real-time risk barometer that synthesizes thousands of expert and non-expert assessments into actionable probability estimates. Browse the current markets below.

Live prediction markets

No active markets matching this question right now.

Markets appear when traders create them on Polymarket. Check back soon or browse trending markets.

Trade these markets for real

Think you know the answer? Put real money behind your predictions on Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market platform.

Start trading on Polymarket

Free to sign up. Start trading today.

Related questions

Explore more prediction questions