Is a Recession Coming?

"Is a recession coming?" is one of the most common economic questions, and prediction markets provide the most data-driven answer available. Instead of relying on a single economist or model, these markets aggregate the assessments of thousands of traders who risk real capital on the outcome.

Current recession odds incorporate a wide range of leading indicators including the yield curve, unemployment claims, manufacturing data, consumer confidence, and corporate earnings trends. When these signals conflict, prediction markets weigh them by the conviction of traders who follow each indicator.

The prediction markets below show both the probability and expected timing of the next recession. This is the same type of data used by hedge funds and institutional investors to inform their positioning. Now you can access it too.