When Will Self-Driving Cars Be Everywhere?

Autonomous vehicle timelines have been one of the most consistently over-promised areas in technology. Prediction markets provide a reality check by aggregating the views of traders who follow regulatory approvals, safety data, technology readiness, and deployment rollouts.

Recent developments including Waymo's expansion, Tesla's robotaxi plans, and regulatory approvals in multiple cities have shifted the odds. Traders now assess not just when the technology will be ready, but when regulatory and insurance frameworks will allow widespread deployment.

The markets below track various autonomous driving milestones, from specific city approvals to nationwide availability. Unlike company roadmaps that tend toward optimism, prediction market odds reflect the full range of delays and obstacles that could affect timelines.