When Will the Housing Market Crash?

Housing crash timing is notoriously difficult to predict, but prediction markets offer a unique advantage by aggregating thousands of individual assessments into a continuously updated probability. Traders factor in mortgage rates, inventory trends, affordability metrics, and regional market dynamics.

Key signals that traders watch include months of supply, price-to-income ratios, foreclosure rates, and the spread between asking prices and sale prices. The current market environment, with elevated rates and stretched affordability, creates conditions that prediction market traders actively price.

Unlike bearish commentators who have predicted a crash "any day now" for years, prediction market odds reflect the actual consensus of people willing to put money behind specific timelines. See what traders are betting on below.