What Are the Odds of Nuclear War?

Nuclear risk prediction markets provide a data-driven assessment of one of humanity's most consequential threats. Traders put real money behind their estimates of nuclear weapon use probability, factoring in current geopolitical tensions, deterrence stability, and proliferation dynamics.

These odds reflect a wide range of scenarios, from tactical nuclear weapon use in regional conflicts to strategic exchanges between nuclear powers. Traders weigh the deterrence logic, escalation ladders, command and control reliability, and the specific geopolitical flashpoints that could lead to nuclear use.

While the absolute probability remains low in most markets, small changes in the odds carry enormous significance given the stakes. Prediction markets help track how this risk evolves in real time as global events unfold. Current market data is shown below.