Is AI Dangerous?

Q: Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by March 31, 2026?

Current prediction market odds: 100% Yes. This market has $755K in 24-hour trading volume on Polymarket. The odds are based on real-money trades from thousands of participants and update continuously.

Q: Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Current prediction market odds: 2% Yes. This market has $708K in 24-hour trading volume on Polymarket. The odds are based on real-money trades from thousands of participants and update continuously.

Q: Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Current prediction market odds: 16% Yes. This market has $667K in 24-hour trading volume on Polymarket. The odds are based on real-money trades from thousands of participants and update continuously.

Q: Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026?

Current prediction market odds: 0% Yes. This market has $479K in 24-hour trading volume on Polymarket. The odds are based on real-money trades from thousands of participants and update continuously.

Q: Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Current prediction market odds: 10% Yes. This market has $359K in 24-hour trading volume on Polymarket. The odds are based on real-money trades from thousands of participants and update continuously.

AI risk is one of the most nuanced topics in prediction markets, with separate markets tracking job displacement, regulatory outcomes, safety incidents, and longer-term existential risk scenarios. Traders price each risk factor independently, providing a granular view of where the real dangers lie.

Near-term AI risks that markets actively trade include widespread job displacement timelines, deepfake-related incidents, AI-enabled cyberattacks, and regulatory responses. Longer-term markets track AGI development, alignment research progress, and the probability of catastrophic outcomes from advanced AI systems.

Because AI risk assessment involves both technical and political dimensions, prediction markets are particularly valuable for synthesizing diverse expert opinions. The odds below represent the consensus of traders who follow AI developments closely and put real money behind their assessments.

Active markets

$4.9M

24h volume

100%

Top market odds