Outcalled
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?

Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?

13%

probability

--

24h change

$6K

24h volume

$5K

liquidity

Yes

13%

No

88%

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Quick call

Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify. This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Market ends: June 30, 2026