
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?
Share:Trade this
57%
probability
-1.0%
24h change
$2K
24h volume
$4K
liquidity
Yes
57%
No
43%
Think you know the answer?
Put real money on your prediction.
Quick call
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the twelfth Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count).
If the twelfth launch has not occurred by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: The sixth Starship-SuperHeavy test flight which exploded after executing controlled splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico would qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Market ends: January 31, 2026