Outcalled
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 7?

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 7?

1%

probability

--

24h change

$11

24h volume

$2K

liquidity

Yes

1%

No

99%

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Quick call

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 7?

Resolution Criteria

If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by April 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

Market ends: January 31, 2026