Outcalled
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?

9%

probability

--

24h change

$39K

24h volume

$115K

liquidity

Yes

9%

No

91%

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Quick call

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.

Market ends: January 1, 2027