Outcalled
Will Bernard Drainville be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 CAQ leadership elections?

Will Bernard Drainville be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 CAQ leadership elections?

14%

probability

-12.0%

24h change

$1K

24h volume

$13K

liquidity

Yes

14%

No

86%

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Quick call

Will Bernard Drainville be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 CAQ leadership elections?

Resolution Criteria

Leadership elections for the Quebec governing political party, Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), are scheduled to be held on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Quebec as a result of the CAQ leadership elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Premier following the 2026 CAQ leadership elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by the date of the next Quebec general election, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Quebec; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Market ends April 12, 2026

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