Outcalled
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?

Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?

16%

probability

+2.5%

24h change

$681

24h volume

$9K

liquidity

Yes

16%

No

85%

Think you know the answer?

Put real money on your prediction.

Trade on Polymarket

Quick call

Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

Market ends December 31, 2026