Outcalled
Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by June 30?

10%

probability

-0.1%

24h change

$0

24h volume

$2K

liquidity

Yes

10%

No

90%

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Quick call

Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

Market ends: June 30, 2026