
CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?
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33%
probability
+21.5%
24h change
$4K
24h volume
$2K
liquidity
Yes
33%
No
67%
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CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market ends December 31, 2026
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