Outcalled
Anthropic’s “supply chain risk” designation removed by May 8?

Anthropic’s “supply chain risk” designation removed by May 8?

14%

probability

-35.0%

24h change

$586

24h volume

$11K

liquidity

Yes

14%

No

86%

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Quick call

Anthropic’s “supply chain risk” designation removed by May 8?

Resolution Criteria

On March 5, 2026, the U.S. Department of Defense (Pentagon) formally designated Anthropic as a supply chain risk to national security, effectively barring the Department of Defense and its contractors from collaborating with Anthropic. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/technology/pentagon-informed-anthropic-it-is-supply-chain-risk-official-says-2026-03-05/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if the designation is officially rescinded, withdrawn, or nullified by a competent authority by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The designation may be removed through executive reversal, agency reversal, or a final court ruling. Executive actions or guidance that merely bypass the designation, allowing U.S. agencies to continue using Anthropic’s AI despite the supply chain risk label, will not qualify. Court rulings that strike down or invalidate the designation as unlawful will qualify. Court orders that only temporarily block, stay, or enjoin the designation will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Market ends May 8, 2026

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