AGI Odds: When Will We Achieve Artificial General Intelligence?
AGI odds from prediction markets tackle one of the biggest questions in technology: when will artificial general intelligence arrive? Traders put real money behind their views on AGI timelines, benchmark milestones, and the path to human-level AI capabilities.
The markets below track AGI-related predictions that range from near-term capability benchmarks to longer-term questions about superintelligence. Each probability represents the consensus of technically informed traders with capital at risk.
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Frequently asked questions
When do prediction markets say AGI will arrive?
AGI timeline estimates vary across markets depending on how AGI is defined. Check the live markets above for the latest real-money probabilities on various AGI milestones and definitions.
How are AGI prediction markets defined?
AGI markets typically define clear resolution criteria based on specific benchmarks, expert declarations, or capability demonstrations. Each market specifies exactly what constitutes AGI for its purposes.
Are AGI prediction odds reliable?
AGI markets attract AI researchers and technologists who understand the field. While predicting novel breakthroughs is inherently difficult, these markets provide the best available consensus estimates.
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