NATO Expansion Predictions: Which Countries Join Next?
NATO expansion predictions for 2026 and beyond. Prediction market odds on which countries will join NATO next, from Ukraine to Georgia and beyond.
NATO has grown from 12 founding members in 1949 to 32 member states following Finland and Sweden's accession. But the expansion question is far from settled. Ukraine's membership aspirations, the status of other Eastern European nations, and growing security concerns in the Asia-Pacific are all generating active prediction market activity. Here is what real-money markets say about NATO's future.
NATO Membership Odds by Country
| Country | Status | Odds: Joins by 2028 | Odds: Joins by 2032 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine | Aspirant (active conflict) | 8% | 22% |
| Georgia | Aspirant | 5% | 15% |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina | MAP participant | 12% | 30% |
| Moldova | Non-aligned | 3% | 10% |
| Kosovo | Not universally recognized | 2% | 8% |
| Ireland | Neutral (EU member) | 2% | 5% |
| Austria | Neutral (EU member) | 1% | 4% |
The Ukraine Question
Ukraine's NATO membership aspiration is the most politically charged expansion question. The situation is complex:
- Political support: Multiple NATO members publicly support Ukraine's eventual membership
- Article 5 obstacle: Admitting Ukraine during an active conflict would obligate all NATO members to defend it militarily against Russia
- Peace deal implications: Some proposed peace frameworks include Ukraine foregoing NATO membership as a concession to Russia
- Security guarantees: Alternative arrangements (bilateral security agreements, EU defense integration) may substitute for full NATO membership
Prediction markets suggest the most likely outcome is a security arrangement short of full NATO membership, at least in the medium term. Markets assign 42% probability to some form of Western security guarantee for Ukraine (outside of NATO) by 2028.
Defense Spending Trends
NATO's 2% of GDP defense spending target has gone from aspiration to near-requirement. The Russia-Ukraine conflict catalyzed a dramatic shift in European defense budgets:
| Country | 2022 Defense Spending (% GDP) | 2026 Defense Spending (% GDP) |
|---|---|---|
| United States | 3.5% | 3.4% |
| Poland | 2.4% | 4.2% |
| United Kingdom | 2.2% | 2.5% |
| Germany | 1.4% | 2.1% |
| France | 1.9% | 2.2% |
| Canada | 1.3% | 1.7% |
Markets assign 72% probability that at least 25 of 32 NATO members will meet the 2% target by 2027, reflecting a genuine shift in European defense posture.
NATO-Asia Pacific Relations
NATO has been strengthening ties with Asia-Pacific partners (Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand). While formal membership for Asian nations is not on the table, prediction markets track the deepening relationship:
- Formal NATO-Japan security pact: 18% probability by 2028
- NATO opens Asia-Pacific liaison office: 35% probability by 2027
- Asian partner participates in NATO exercise: 72% probability in 2026
FAQ: NATO Expansion Predictions
Will Ukraine join NATO?
Not in the near term. Markets assign only 8% probability by 2028 and 22% by 2032. Active conflict and Russian opposition are the primary obstacles. Some form of security guarantee outside NATO is more likely.
Which country is most likely to join NATO next?
Bosnia and Herzegovina has the highest near-term odds at 12% by 2028. It has a Membership Action Plan in place but faces internal political obstacles.
Could neutral countries like Ireland join?
Markets assign very low probability (2% by 2028) to traditionally neutral countries joining. Public opinion in Ireland and Austria remains largely opposed to NATO membership, though sentiment has shifted somewhat since Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
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